Will Brian Kelly’s Record ATS Continue at LSU?

Many LSU fans will probably focus on whether Brian Kelly can lead the team to a national championship. However, those also interested in betting on Kelly’s LSU Tigers are probably eager to see if his record against the spread continues to thrive in Baton Rouge.

If his record during his Notre Dame tenure means anything, bettors at Louisiana sportsbooks will be happy betting on LSU ATS more often than not.

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Brian Kelly ATS Record

If you consider a good record ATS one where a coach wins more than he loses, then Kelly has achieved that over the years. As an FBS head coach (Central Michigan, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame), he’s compiled a record of 125-99-3.

His best record came at Central Michigan, where his team won ATS 65.7% of the time (23-12). While his Cincinnati teams compiled an impressive 34-7 record, they were not as good ATS winning just 55.3% of the time.

As for his time at Notre Dame, Kelly’s Fighting Irish came out ahead ATS with an overall record of 81-70-3. Things did not start out too well; the team finished with a sub-.500 record ATS in four of his first seven seasons (42-46-2). But over the last five, the Fighting Irish were the second-best team in the country ATS going 39-24-1 (61.9%).

YearTeamWin/LossATS
2021Notre Dame11-29-4
2020Notre Dame10-26-6
2019Notre Dame11-29-4
2018Notre Dame12-17-5-1
2017Notre Dame10-38-5
2016Notre Dame4-84-8
2015Notre Dame10-38-5
2014Notre Dame8-56-7
2013Notre Dame9-45-7-1
2012Notre Dame12-17-6
2011Notre Dame8-55-8
2010Notre Dame8-57-5-1
2009Cincinnati12-16-7
2008Cincinnati11-36-7
2007Cincinnati10-39-3
2006Cincinnati1-0
2006Central Michigan9-411-3
2005Central Michigan6-58-3
2004Central Michigan4-74-6

So, if you had bet ATS on every Notre Dame game since 2010, you would have won more than you lost. However, during bowl season, the results were not nearly as good. Under Kelly, Notre Dame went 5-6 straight up in bowl games and just 3-8 ATS.

Why Should We Care About Brian Kelly’s ATS Record?

Notre Dame went 11-2 in Kelly’s last season, so why not take the moneyline and win your bet in 11 games next to winning nine bets ATS? That’s a fair question – one the betting line for last season’s Notre Dame vs. Stanford game can answer.

Stanford was not a good team last season and entered the game a 21-point underdog. Sure enough, Notre Dame cruised to a 45-14 win over the Cardinal.

If you had bet the Notre Dame moneyline (-1700 via Caesars) on this game, you would have had to risk $1700 to win $100.

However, had you the Fighting Irish to win ATS, -21 at -110, you would have needed to bet $110 to win $100.

So, yeah, you may have won your wager 11 times last season had you taken the moneyline, but you would have had to risk a lot of money to win a little.

Long Odds for Conference Title: LSU as high as +10000 to win SEC

Will The Good Times Continue to Roll at LSU?

When it comes to ATS, he wins more than he loses, so it is hard to find fault with his performance as a head coach in that regard. But how can we tell whether his luck ATS will continue at LSU?

Over time, that is hard to say. But there are a couple of things that will work in LSU’s favor ATS this season:

  • Bettors like to get behind winners, and since LSU is coming off a 6-7 season, they may be reluctant to get behind the Tigers (at first).
  • Strength of schedule: while their non-conference schedule is soft, they play in the SEC.

Both factors will help keep the point spread from getting too high, making it easier to cover. It will still be tough to win but may not be as tough to cover.

AP Photo/John Bazemore

About the Author

Travis Pulver

Travis Pulver is a lifelong football fan, something he says comes naturally having been born in the football-crazy state of Texas. Through the years, his love of sports has extended into baseball, basketball, golf, and rugby. Life currently finds him in Indiana with his wife and two kids.