Sugar Bowl Betting Odds And Preview — Baylor Vs Ole Miss

The city of New Orleans is set to host the Sugar Bowl between the Baylor Bears and Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday (7:45 p.m. CT, ESPN). The game will take place at the Caesars Superdome, home of the New Orleans Saints.

Baylor (11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS) enters this contest after a dramatic win over Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship Game. On the other side, Ole Miss (10-2 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) is coming off a 31-21 victory over arch-rival Mississippi State.

Both teams are led by second-year head coaches. After going just 2-7 last season, Dave Aranda has led Baylor to an impressive turnaround, while Lane Kiffin led Ole Miss to double-digit wins for the first time in school history.

All in all, this should be a tremendous matchup to watch unfold, and the Big Easy is the perfect backdrop. Now that the table is set, let’s take a look at the betting breakdown for this game.

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Sugar Bowl Betting Odds

DraftKingsBaylor +1 (-105)
Ole Miss -1 (-115)
Baylor +105
Ole Miss -125
Over 55.5 (-105)
Under 55.5 (-115)
FanDuelBaylor +1.5 (-110)
Ole Miss -1.5 (-110)
Baylor -104
Ole Miss -118
Over 55.5 (-105)
Under 55.5 (-115)
PointsBetBaylor +1.5 (-110)
Ole Miss -1.5 (-110)
Baylor +105
Ole Miss -125
Over 55.5 (-110)
Under 55.5 (-110)
CaesarsBaylor +1.5 (-110)
Ole Miss -1.5 (-110)
Baylor +105
Ole Miss -125
Over 55.5 (-110)
Under 55.5 (-110)

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Matt Corral Leads The Way For Ole Miss

Perhaps the biggest storyline entering this matchup is that Ole Miss QB Matt Corral is suiting up for the Rebels. After some speculation that Corral may forego the Sugar Bowl in order to prepare for the NFL Draft, he announced that he is ready to roll and will lead the Rebel offense in New Orleans.

Corral can do a little bit of everything. He was one of four quarterbacks at the FBS level to throw for 20+ touchdowns and run for at least 10 touchdowns. 

As strong as the Ole Miss passing game is, they have a strong running game as well. The Rebels were the only offense in the entire country that had four rushers with at least 500 yards: Jerrion Ealy (703 yards), Snoop Conner (605 yards), Matt Corral (597 yards), and Henry Parrish Jr. (542 yards). 

Ole Miss has a high-octane offense that can make things happen in a hurry. The Rebels gained an impressive 506.7 total yards per game, which was the fourth-most in the country. The Rebels play at an extremely fast pace, and head coach Lane Kiffin is known to be aggressive on fourth down. If the offense gets into a groove, it can be tough to slow down.

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Bears Lean On Their Defense

Ole Miss relies on a fast-paced passing game, while Baylor takes a different approach. The Bears rely on playing strong defense and running the ball on a consistent basis. The contrasting styles between these teams surely make for an intriguing matchup.

Their running game is led by Abram Smith. He ran for 1,429 yards and 12 touchdowns this season. Trestan Ebner creates a solid 1-2 punch for the Bears out of the backfield, as he rushed for 763 yards.

After missing a pair of games with a hamstring injury, QB Gerry Bohanon is healthy and will play in this one. Bohanon completed 64.3% of his passes for 2,160 yards, 17 touchdowns, and six interceptions this season.

All in all, Baylor plays a more structured brand of football. It will be interesting to see how this one unfolds.

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Point Spread Analysis And Pick

If history means anything in this matchup, the Rebels could be in a favorable spot. Ole Miss has made nine appearances in the Sugar Bowl, and it sports a 6-3 record in those games. Overall, Ole Miss is 12-2 in its last 14 bowl games dating back to 1992, and it is 10-4 in bowls against current Big 12 members.

The Rebels’ passing game can make things happen in a hurry, and if they jump out to an early lead, it could be tough sledding for the Bears. Baylor does not have the offensive firepower to play from behind.

The Rebels have more speed, played a much tougher schedule, and have the better quarterback in Corral. Baylor’s defense has been solid, but it has not seen an offense like this.

Take Ole Miss -1.

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Over/Under Analysis And Pick

As fast-paced as the Ole Miss offense can be, one would think it plays in a lot of high-scoring games. That is not necessarily the case, as the under was 9-3 for the Rebels in the regular season. Baylor’s defense is playing with a ton of confidence right now, and Aranda’s squad should be able to stymie the Rebels just enough to keep this one under the total. In their last four games, the Bears have allowed 14, 10, 24, and 16 points to their opponents. On the season, Baylor allowed 19.2 points per game.

Along with their stout defense, Baylor’s strong running game should slow the game down a bit. The combination of Smith and Ebner running the ball should help take time off the clock when the Bears have the ball.

Kiffin is known to take plenty of chances with fourth down attempts, and if unsuccessful, that can lead to empty drives for Ole Miss and a long field for the Baylor offense. Both of those bode well for the under.

Consider backing the under at 55.5.

All odds used were available at the time of publishing on Dec. 30.

About the Author

Connor Grootenhuis

Connor Grootenhuis is a Content Manager and sportswriter covering all things sports betting. Based in the Bayou State of Louisiana, he is a lifelong sports fan and a believer that every loss is a bad beat and every win is easy money.