The New Orleans Saints host the Buffalo Bills in a Thanksgiving Day showdown on Thursday evening (7:20 CT, NBC). Both teams are looking to get back into the win column. The Saints (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) are riding a three-game losing streak, while the Bills (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) suffered a 41-15 smackdown at the hands of the Colts last Sunday.
Oddsmakers are expecting a close game, as the Bills are currently listed as 4-point favorites on most notable sportsbooks. Let’s take a deeper dive into this matchup to see who has the edge.
Saints Vs Bills Betting Odds
While DraftKings and FanDuel have the Bills listed as 4-point favorites, the line increases in their favor to 4.5 on PointsBet and Caesars. That half a point could make a huge difference, so no matter which side you end up backing, be sure to shop around at various sportsbooks to ensure you get the best line available.
|Saints Spread||Bills Spread||Saints Money Line||Bills Money Line||Total|
|DraftKings||+4 (-110)||-4 (-110)||+160||-190||46.5 (OV -110, UN -110)|
|FanDuel||+4 (-110)||-4 (-110)||+172||-205||46.5 (OV -110, UN -110)|
|PointsBet||+4.5 (-110)||-4.5 (-110)||+175||-210||46.5 (OV -110, UN -110)|
|Caesars||+4.5 (-110)||-4.5 (-110)||+175||-210||46.5 (OV -110, UN -110)|
The total is consistently listed at 46.5, with -110 juice on either side. The OVER is 6-4 for the Saints this season and 5-5 for the Bills.
This Thanksgiving Day matchup is the first meeting between these teams in over four years. The Saints and Bills last faced each other on Nov. 12, 2017, in Buffalo, with the Saints walking away with a big 47-10 victory.
Buffalo’s QB Advantage
Buffalo QB Josh Allen poses a major threat. Allen is sixth in the NFL with 2,811 passing yards, and the New Orleans passing defense hasn’t exactly been elite. The Saints are allowing 252.2 yards per game through the air, which ranks 22nd in the league.
What the Saints do best is stop the run, but Buffalo does not rely on the running game. The Bills run the ball about 25 times per game, which is in the middle of the pack in the NFL. They have yet to have a 100-yard rusher in a game this season, and most of their damage is done through the air. The Bills rank seventh in the league with 272.9 passing yards per game.
Allen and WR Stefon Diggs could have a successful day through the air in this one. The Bills are a tough team to slow down if they get in a groove, and if that happens, it could be a long day for the New Orleans secondary.
Saints QB Trevor Siemian has done a respectable job filling in for the injured Jameis Winston, but it has not translated to New Orleans wins. The Saints are 0-3 in games started by Siemian, and he is coming off his shakiest performance of the season. He threw a pair of interceptions, including a costly pick-6, on Sunday against the Eagles.
Also read: 5 tips when betting on the Saints
The Bills fell flat last week against the Colts, but they have done a good job of bouncing back. Buffalo has yet to lose back-to-back games this season. In addition, after their previous three losses, they responded with double-digit wins each time. The Bills have a significant edge at quarterback, and Allen should be able to exploit a Saints passing defense that has had its struggles.
It also doesn’t help that the Saints are still dealing with a plethora of injuries. RB Alvin Kamara, OL Ryan Ramczyk, and DE Marcus Davenport all missed practice on Monday, and their status remains in doubt. Another big loss is TE Adam Trautman, who will miss 4-6 weeks with an MCL strain. In an already depleted receiving core, Trautman’s red zone presence will be missed. He hauled in five passes for 58 yards and a touchdown last week against the Eagles.
Overall, the Saints are a tough team to back right now. Their injuries continue to pile up, and the Bills have shown they can bounce back after tough losses. The same can’t be said for the Saints.
Take the healthier team with the more reliable offense. Back the Bills -4.
All odds used were available at the time of publishing on Tuesday, November 23.