The LSU Tigers play at home in Baton Rouge for the first time in almost a month as they host the Arkansas Razorbacks on Saturday night (SEC Network, 6:30 p.m. CT). The game marks the first of three consecutive home games for the Tigers to close out the regular season.
LSU (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) is coming off a pair of tough losses on the road against Ole Miss and Alabama. On the other side, Arkansas (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) became bowl eligible last week with a big win over Mississippi State by a score of 31-28.
The LSU-Arkansas rivalry, also known as the Battle for the Golden Boot, began in 1901 and has been played every year since Arkansas joined the SEC in 1992. LSU owns the all-time series lead 42-22-2, and the Tigers have claimed five consecutive victories over the Razorbacks.
LSU Vs Arkansas Betting Odds
Oddsmakers are expecting a close game in Saturday’s contest. As the No. 25 team in this week’s College Football Playoff Rankings, Arkansas is listed as a 2.5-point favorite at most notable sportsbooks.
The total is hovering in the high-50s and is up as high as 59.5 on FanDuel. The over is 6-3 for Arkansas this season, while the under is 5-4 for LSU.
|LSU Spread||Arkansas Spread||LSU Money Line||Arkansas Money Line||Total|
|DraftKings||+2.5 (-105)||-2.5 (-115)||+115||-135||59 (OV -110, UN -110)|
|FanDuel||+2.5 (-110)||-2.5 (-110)||+114||-140||59.5 (OV -105, UN -115)|
|PointsBet||+2.5 (-115)||-2.5 (-115)||+115||-136||59 (OV -110, UN -110)|
|Caesars||+2.5 (-105)||-2.5 (-115)||+115||-135||59 (OV -110, UN -110)|
Because of the familiarity between these teams, there are a number of trends to keep in mind. Here are some key betting trends from recent matchups:
- LSU is 11-3 SU since 1992 when playing the Razorbacks at home in Tiger Stadium
- The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings
- Arkansas is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings
- The OVER is 8-2 in LSU’s last 10 home games
- The OVER is 5-1 in Arkansas’ last six road games
- LSU won last year’s matchup 27-24 as one-point favorites
Point Spread Analysis And Pick
Arkansas became bowl eligible for the first time since 2016 with their win over Mississippi State last week. Second-year head coach Sam Pittman compared becoming bowl eligible to winning the Super Bowl. Arkansas has had some rough years in recent memory so that feeling is understandable.
That being said, are the Razorbacks in for a letdown on Saturday against a hungry LSU team that is still fighting for a bowl berth?
With a record of 4-5, the Tigers must win two of their last three games to become bowl eligible. After Saturday’s tilt with Arkansas, LSU faces Louisiana-Monroe and then Texas A&M in the regular-season finale.
It’s become clear that this LSU team is not quitting on Coach Ed Orgeron, who will not return next season. LSU gave No. 2 Alabama all it could handle last week, and the Tigers should be able to build off that performance.
LSU will be happy to be back at home after back-to-back road losses. The good news for the Tigers is that Arkansas is 0-2 SU on the road this season, compared to posting a 5-1 record at home. The Tigers are 3-1 SU at home.
In addition, LSU has played well as a home underdog in recent memory. The Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog. The last time LSU was listed as a home underdog (+11.5 vs Florida on Oct. 16), it won the game outright by a score of 49-42.
One key area that could decide this game is penalties. Arkansas was penalized 11 times for 84 yards last week against Mississippi State. That has been a common theme for the Razorbacks this season, as they rank 12th out of 14 SEC teams in penalties per game (8.6) and penalty yards per game (71.3).
On the other hand, LSU has been playing disciplined football. The Tigers have done a good job of staying out of their own way, averaging the fewest penalty yards per game in all of college football (31.4). If LSU can keep that trend going, it should find itself in a favorable position.
Consider backing LSU +2.5.
Over/Under Analysis And Pick
LSU’s defense held its own against two potent offenses in Ole Miss and Alabama. The Tigers held the Tide to 20 points in a game for which Alabama had an extra week to prepare coming off a bye.
However, the offense has not been as strong. QB Max Johnson is struggling with consistency, and the Tigers are dealing with a number of injuries on the offensive side of the ball. They scored 14 and 17 points in their last two games.
Offensively for Arkansas, it seems likely that it will rely on the run game in this one. The Razorbacks have totaled at least 200 yards on the ground in each of their last four games. They lead the SEC and are fourth in the country in rushing yards per game (243.8).
That emphasis on the running game could keep the clock moving at a decent pace, which bodes well for the under.
In terms of the total, lean with the UNDER 59.5.